Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
